Among developing countries, Brazil and Russia are heavy especially in the negative direction of the forecast. More significant, however, is China, where growth is slowing amid the reforms that Beijing is trying to make the economy less dependent on investment and exports. According to Basu in 2016 and 2017. The pace of growth in India and China will catch up at around 7%. This year China is expected to achieve GDP growth of 7.1 percent from an estimated 7.2% of the bank in October and 7.5% in June.
Euro, which this year has 19 states, is expected to achieve growth of 1.1% in 2015 compared to the June forecast of 1.8%. For the next two years, predicts growth of 1.6%. Japan Bank lowered its forecast from 1.3 to 1.2% for 2015, as in 2016 is expected to accelerate to 1.6%. One of the strongest revisions for economic growth in Russia. The previous forecast was the country's economy to shrink by 0.7 percent this year, according to a new decline in GDP by 2.9%. Expected return to minimal growth of 0.1% until 2016
According to World Bank analysis of the decline in oil prices by nearly 60 percent since the middle of last year should have a positive net effect on the world economy, as it will stimulate economies importing energy resources. The positive effect of growth, however, can be felt in a few years, while in the short term, lower prices will increase market volatility and would cut investments in unconventional oil such as shale and deep. The immediate effect of lower crude oil prices will be limited to adding 0.1% to global economic growth this year, says the World Bank.
The institution notes that there is another negative effect of falling oil prices - a drop of inflation worldwide. Fears of deflation together with the gloomy global outlook and stagnant wages in the US can change the intentions of the Fed soon start raising interest rates, says Basu.